Business Forecast - 1469 Words

Abstract This Paper examines and compares various forecasting techniques used for qualitative and quantitative business forecasting and their use in Firstlogic Inc., to forecast the demand under conditions of uncertainty. Time series and Delphi forecasting methods are considered for this research to evaluate their ability to make effective decisions regarding the future. Business Forecasting Business forecasting is the process of studying historical performance for the purpose of using the knowledge gained to project future business conditions so that decisions can be made today that will aid in the achievement of established goals. Forecasting plays a crucial role in today s uncertain global marketplace. Forecasting is traditionally†¦show more content†¦This group then feeds back the responses to other members of the group, while never giving away the identity of the response. The experts are then asked to respond again, after reviewing the responses of other respondents. This process may continue until a consensus is reached among the group. The group may be united to form a final consensus (Namvar, 2000, p.8). Time Series Forecasting Method Time series techniques are the most popular quantitative method. These techniques use statistical methods for projecting from historical data. Quantitative techniques are preferred when appropriate data are available. The main assumption is that the historical pattern will continue into the future. The two main types of time series forecasting are average smoothing and exponential smoothing. The moving average is simply a series of arithmetic averages. Predicting sales for next year is simple. The actual sales for a certain number of years is added, and then divided by the number of years used to get the moving average. A weighted moving average is obtained by assigning a specific weight to previous years. The sum of all weights must equal one. Recent years are given a higher weight (Namvar, 2000, p.13). Exponential smoothing is simply a subtype of the weighted moving average. A new forecast is a weighted sum of actual variables (usually sales) in the current year and the weighted forecast ofShow MoreRelatedEssay about Business Forecast1444 Words   |  6 PagesBusiness Forecast This Paper examines and compares various forecasting techniques used for qualitative and quantitative business forecasting and their use in Firstlogic Inc., to forecast the demand under conditions of uncertainty. Time series and Delphi forecasting methods are considered for this research to evaluate their ability to make effective decisions regarding the future. Business Forecasting Business forecasting is the process of studying historical performance for the purpose ofRead MoreL.L. Bean, Inc. Case Study Report1016 Words   |  5 Pages 6. At the item level, forecasts have to be issued and ultimately purchase commitments have to be made. 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Inc. Overview of its business model, value proposition and projected financial forecast.1545 Words   |  7 Pagesï » ¿ Yahoo! Inc. Overview of the company’s business model, value proposition and projected financial forecast. Introduction Yahoo! Inc. is a global US Internet Corporation, founded in California in 1994, which provides a range of products and content, including email, media streaming and downloads. Surviving the dot.com crash in 2001, Yahoo concentrated on pursuing partnerships with telecoms and internet providers to compete with AOL, they acquired smallerRead MoreBarilla Case Study3439 Words   |  14 PagesMaastricht University School of Business and Economics International Executive Master of Finance and Control 20 April 2012 Course – Logistics Prof. Dr. Allard van Riel Pauline Henselmans Jetse van de Kamp Ze Zhu Thiago Barros de Oliveira Rene Lorrier Contents 1. 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